Daily currency update
Today in the UK, we are continuing to see Sterling hold robust levels near $1.3730–1.3740, flirting with 4‑year highs thanks to USD weakness driven by political pressure on the Fed. UK retail sentiment slumped, with the CBI’s June survey falling to -46, signalling a deeper consumer slowdown, this tension underpins BoE pause expectations.
Over in the US, we saw the Dollar Index dropped to a 3.5‑year low (97.4) amid hawkish Fed leadership rumours and dovish repricing on cuts. US Treasury 10‑year yield eased slightly (4.26%), reflecting a growing belief in imminent Fed easing and safe-haven rotation into bonds and gold.
In the Eurozone, we saw gains for EUR/USD, it rallied to 1.1700, close to its highest point in over three years, riding the USD slide and strong global sentiment. European equities and Asia ex-Japan stocks hit fresh multi-year highs, expanded by US–China rare-earth deal and easing Middle East risk.
Key movers
In the US we have US Core PCE (May.) The Fed’s key inflation metric, due shortly. A surprise here could reset markets.
In the Eurozone, we have France CPI (June, prelim) – Eurozone inflation gauge, a surprise print could sway ECB outlook and EUR direction. While technically this is a euro release, UK‑EU inflation divergence is key for sterling; lower French CPI eases ECB pressure and this can indirectly support GBP.
Expected Ranges
GBP/USD: 1.3655 – 1.3769 ↑
GBP/EUR: 1.1688 – 1.1770 ↓
EUR/USD: 1.1676 – 1.1755 ↑
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