Daily currency update
The FTSE 100 fell 0.5% as rising Israel–Iran tensions sparked risk-off sentiment across markets. Sterling held steady, supported by safe-haven flows, though UK growth and BoE concerns capped gains. Eurozone stocks slipped, led by losses in airlines and energy, while EUR/USD dropped to the low 1.15s on safe-haven demand.
In the U.S., futures pointed to a 1.5% drop in the S&P and Nasdaq, as geopolitical risks weighed heavily. Oil surged 10%, Treasuries rallied, and safe-haven currencies (USD, JPY, CHF) strengthened. Markets now eye energy-driven inflation pressure.
Key movers
In the UK today we have IHS Markit Employment Figures: Updated monthly readings due mean critical to gauge labour market strength and potential BoE pressure. UK labour readings could tip sterling and influence BoE narratives pre-Spending Review.
Over in the Eurozone we have Industrial Production (April) & Trade Balance: German and French CPI follow-up, plus euro-zone output figures – key for ECB policy signals amid geopolitical risk. Finally, in the US today we have University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim June) – Final sentiment test before the weekend, influencing Fed rate expectations and equity tone.
Expected Ranges
GBP/USD: 1.3455 – 1.3560 ↓
GBP/EUR: 1.1680 – 1.18 ↓
EUR/USD: 1.1495 – 1.1570 ↑
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