Dutch far-right leader's rise due to voter ambivalence: pundits

(THE HAGUE) - Dutch far-right MP Geert Wilders' EU parliament success can be explained as the response of an ambivalent and ill-informed electorate to his simple, populist message, analysts said Friday.

The anti-Islam firebrand's Party for Freedom (PVV) was the big winner in polls Thursday, taking 17 percent of the vote and four of 25 Dutch seats on the EU parliament in its first European campaign, according to preliminary results.

Amsterdam University political analyst, Fouad Laroui, believes the outcome was symptomatic of a significant leaning towards politicians of the "extreme right, populist, who use simple language -- caricatures".

In the Netherlands, like the rest of the continent, this segment comprised up to a fifth of all voters, he estimated.

This group, "who understand little apart from feeling threatened, vote for people like Geert Wilders to save them the trouble of reflecting on such issues as the economy, politics and globalisation".

Alfred Pijpers, researcher at the Dutch international relations institute Clingendael, agreed that Wilders had tapped into a group of voters, about 20 percent, who "veer from left to right without subscribing to the specific policies of political parties".

"These are, above all, people who have a degree of resentment towards the elite and feel misunderstood, excluded from society and the media," he said.

"Geert Wilders dominates this segment of the electorate for the moment, but should he retire from the political scene, another populist will probably appear."

Wilders, who describes the Koran as fascist, receives 24-hour protection following death threats, faces a hate speech trial at home and has been barred from entering Britain, came second in Thursday's polls.

First, with 19.9 percent was Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's Christian Democrats (CDA), which lost two of its seven European parliament seats.

The CDA's governing coalition partner, the labour PvdA, was the biggest loser -- taking 12.1 percent compared with 23.6 percent in 2004 and losing four of its seven seats.

Analysts say Wilders was simply the current populist incarnation, having taken the place of the charismatic Pim Fortuyn, considered the first real spokesman for Dutch disquiet over immigration.

"Wilders exists only because Fortuyn is no longer there. There was a void to fill," said Laroudi.

Like Fortuyn, who was assassinated in 2002, Wilders had placed himself "against Islam, against foreigners, against the establishment and against Brussels," said Pijpers.

The 45-year-old Wilders' stated mission is to halt the "islamisation" of the Netherlands.

His 17-minute anti-Islam film, "Fitna", featuring shocking imagery of attacks on New York in 2001 and Madrid in 2004 combined with quotes from the Koran, Islam's holy book, has drawn outrage in a series of Muslim countries.

He wants a total ban of the burka as well as a halt on immigration from Muslim countries and on the construction of mosques in the Netherlands.

The PVV, which currently has nine of 150 seats on the Dutch parliament, opposes Turkey's entry into the EU. Recent opinion polls have said the party would get close to 30 seats were Dutch elections to be held today.

Despite its recent success, there was only a small chance of the PVV ever coming to power in the Netherlands, said Pijpers.

"Paradoxically, Geert Wilders reinforces the cohesion between established parties and members of the governing coalition," he said.

"Even if the PVV obtains 25 or 30 percent of the (national) vote, it will never enter government: the other parties will maintain the cordon sanitaire".

They had also learnt their lesson from Fortuyn, said Pijpers.

In 2002, the CDA and liberal VVD went into coalition with the late Fortuyn's LPF party, which had won 26 seats just days after his murder, but the cabinet crumbled after three months when internal LPF bickering turned it into a liability.

Fortuyn's party has since disappeared from the political scene.