To be honest, it isn’t very surprising that discords regarding the Brexit deal keep popping up every other day. Being as last minute as it was, nobody was blown away by the fact that it leaves a lot of room for interpretation, which naturally differs between both sides of the agreement. However, even with that in mind, things seem to be going even worse than was expected by government officials and political analysts.
Was this deal doomed to fail from the start, or is there still hope for a smoother transition? Let’s take a look at the main events of the past two months to try and understand. We’ll focus on the primary victims of these strange dynamics: the common people on both sides, trying to make a living. We’ll also try to make a careful projection for the future, keeping in mind that certainty regarding Brexit is nothing more than wishful thinking.
Amazing grace
Part of the agreement between the sides was a period of grace, lasting approximately one year, when things are to be sorted out in the process of transition. Well, this grace period seems to be very tense so far. Little disagreements surface every now and then, but the biggest issue to date was the row over distribution of AstraZeneca vaccines to the EU. Officials on both sides had expected the issue to be resolved diplomatically, but boy, were they wrong.
If you ask top political analysts, they will tell you that despite the issue being “solved”, the bad blood between the UK and the EU has led, in the past months, to little incidents blowing out of proportions. Both sides were left with a sour taste in their mouths, especially the UK, despite it having the upper hand at the end of that episode.
The latest issue on the table
Now all eyes are on Northern Ireland. One of Brexit’s clauses states that customs are to be eased between the EU and Northern Ireland, and in turn tightened by April 1st, 2021, between NI and the rest of the UK (England, Scotland, and Wales). However, the UK has unilaterally decided to extend the period of eased custom demands from NI to the rest of the Kingdom until October, stirring up great objection from those seated in Brussels.
“The original purpose was to carefully tread over the very sensitive issue of placing a land border between Ireland and Northern Ireland,” told us Johnathan Greenwood of Crystalead, a digital marketing brand headquartered in Ireland but operating in the UK as well as all over Europe. “Now, even this has become a reason to butt heads. We are definitely feeling it in our marketing platforms currently, with great uncertainty concerning the availability to deliver goods across the British Isles.”
A blow to businesses
The ones who suffer the most from this clash of egos are the businesses on both sides, especially the smaller ones, who rely on personal global sales. Such unilateral moves cannot be foreseen by the average business owner, who thus cannot be prepared for them, and they usually cause a snowball of reactions, also never anticipated. Add to that the COVID-19 situation, and you’ll understand the force of the blow these people, just looking to make ends meet, have received.
“At Crystalead, we serve freelance marketers from around the world who are looking to put their skills to work,” told us Greenwood, “and lately there’s a spike in interest from the UK. We asked around and it turns out that a lot of these new enrollers are people who have given up on their business or company because conditions were becoming unbearable for them.”
Not all is lost?
If there’s one thing that can be a source of comfort and optimism, it’s the fact that none of these issues have yet caused both sides to go to extremes. There’s quite a hefty amount of threats and undiplomatic language, but severe measures are not usually noted. That’s because despite the bad blood between the sides, both have an interest in Brexit being as smooth as possible. That’s why European and British officials project that these are no more than bumps in the road, and that in the course of a year, manners are going to smooth out in the continent.
