Less to Turkey-EU deal than meets the eye: analysts

(BRUSSELS) - An EU-Turkey deal struck at a summit in Brussels is unlikely to significantly slow the flow of migrants to Europe or bring Ankara much closer to joining the bloc, analysts said Monday.

European Union leaders pledged Sunday to give Turkey three billion euros ($3.2 billion) in aid for Syrian refugees and kickstart its stalled membership bid in return for Ankara's cooperation in tackling the worst migrant crisis since World War II.

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the first such summit in 11 years was a "historic day" and vowed that his country would keep its promises, in the face of scepticism from some countries in the 28-member EU.

"What the Europeans are asking of Turkey is unrealistic and unrealisable," said Cengiz Aktar, a political scientist from Istanbul's Bahcesehir University.

"They must be dreaming. Nobody can prevent these migrants from heading to Greece or Bulgaria because they have no future in their own country or in Turkey," Aktar said.

Turkey hosts more than two million refugees from the Syrian conflict and is the main launching point for migrants coming to Europe, via Greece. EU president Donald Tusk said 1.5 million people have illegally come to Europe this year.

Davutoglu conceded that Turkey's efforts were likely to end in failure even while promising to fulfil all the terms of the deal.

"I wish to say to you that 'yes, the number of the migrants will decline,' but we cannot say this because we don't know what will be going on in Syria," the premier told a press conference late Sunday.

Meanwhile Turkey's EU membership bid is likely to remain in the doldrums despite the deal, analysts said.

At the summit the EU agreed to open a new "chapter" of Turkey's accession bid next month and look at opening others in 2016. Turkey also won a promise of an easing of visa rules if it fulfilled obligations, an outcome greeted noisily in the pro-government Turkish press.

- 'EU realpolitik at its worst' -

But with just one out of 35 chapters completed since the process started in 2005 it would take until the year 2355 for Turkey to join the EU at the current rate.

Aktar said he did not expect EU member Cyprus to lift its veto over Turkey's negotiations for accession to the EU as long as the east Mediterranean remains divided.

Cyprus, which has been divided between the Turkish Cypriots and the internationally-recognised Greek Cypriot government since a war with Turkey in 1974, "will not change its mind as long as there is no reunification," Aktar said.

The EU is also hesitant about opening its arms to Turkey amid concerns over human rights abuses under the increasingly authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"Not a word (in the joint statement) on the state of rights, the media and the Kurdish question. It's EU realpolitik at its worst," according to Marc Pierini, a Carnegie Europe analyst and former EU ambassador to Ankara.

Nonetheless, the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, promised to tackle the perennial stumbling blocks at a later date.

"We have not forgotten the differences that still remain with Turkey over human rights and freedom of the press, and we will return to them," Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged.

The deal was agreed just after days the editor-in-chief and Ankara correspondent of a top Turkish newspaper were detained on spying charges for publishing allegations that Turkey had tried to deliver arms to rebels in Syria.

"The details of the deal with Turkey are vague," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London.

"Whether and how it can be implemented remain difficult questions. But both sides probably have an interest to make it work in the end."

Meeting of heads of state or government with Turkey - EU-Turkey statement, 29/11/2015