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Sweden: Country Economic Forecast 2012

19 January 2010
by marketresearch -- last modified 26 July 2012

This report contains detailed economic forecasts and analysis for Sweden. The GDP growth forecast for Sweden has been raised to 1.5% from 0.6% in March.

Price EUR 141.39
Publisher Oxford Economics
Publication date 01 February 2012
Available from Dispatched and sold by marketresearch.


After a sharp drop in the economy in 2011Q4, the signs at the start of 2012 have been promising so far, particularly with regard to consumer spending. As a result, the forecast for GDP growth in 2012 has been raised to 1.5% (from 0.6% in March). Early signs from a number of indicators, such as retail sales and employment suggest that private spending will expand by a solid 1.1% on the quarter in Q1. But high oil prices and lower house prices will dampen consumption somewhat in subsequent quarters. Overall, consumption is expected to expand by 1.7% this year. Export volumes are likely to have rebounded in 2012Q1 but only sluggish growth is expected in the next few quarters given faltering demand within the Eurozone, a key export market. As a result, we forecast real exports will expand by only 0.4% in 2012 after rising 6.8% in 2011. On 18 April, the Riksbank held its key policy rate at 1.5% on the basis of the more positive data. However, low prospective inflation means that interest rates are likely to be held steady until mid-2013. Meanwhile, the focus of the government's spring budget bill was on structural reforms and ensuring sound fiscal buffers. But slower growth will hit tax revenues, so it is expected to see a deficit of 0.4% of GDP this year.

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