Skip to content. | Skip to navigation

Personal tools
You are here: Home Members Warwick Business School 'More optimistic' OBR forecast more likely than severe recession, says economist

'More optimistic' OBR forecast more likely than severe recession, says economist

Posted by Warwick Business School at 18 July 2019, 12:44 CET |
Filed under: ,

Expert comment from Dr Ivan Petrella, associate professor of economics at Warwick Business School

The Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) has a predicted a recession in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit, with economic growth likely to fall by two per cent by the end of 2020.

"The Office for Budgetary Responsibility is forecasting a short term contraction of GDP, leading to a temporary recession in 2020. This is a much more optimistic assessment of the potential dangers of a 'no deal' Brexit than the Bank of England, the Treasury, and most commentators are currently predicting.

"I think the short term impact projected by the OBR is a much more likely outcome than the severe recession predicted by the Bank of England.

"However, I am more pessimistic on the medium term impact of a 'no deal' exit. I strongly believe that the uncertainty associated with a rushed 'no deal' exit is likely to have a more prolonged negative impact on the economy."

Document Actions
Become a Partner

Partnership gives you:

  • Your own section on - with your press releases, position papers, events, job vacancies etc
  • Each content item linked from topic channels where your organisation has expertise
  • Listing on Partners page
  • Branded with your logo and links

For further details on becoming a Partner, contact email salesSales by email, or phone Nick Prag on +44 (0)20 7193 7242.

Membership options