'More optimistic' OBR forecast more likely than severe recession, says economist
Expert comment from Dr Ivan Petrella, associate professor of economics at Warwick Business School
The Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) has a predicted a recession in the event of a 'no deal' Brexit, with economic growth likely to fall by two per cent by the end of 2020.
"The Office for Budgetary Responsibility is forecasting a short term contraction of GDP, leading to a temporary recession in 2020. This is a much more optimistic assessment of the potential dangers of a 'no deal' Brexit than the Bank of England, the Treasury, and most commentators are currently predicting.
"I think the short term impact projected by the OBR is a much more likely outcome than the severe recession predicted by the Bank of England.
"However, I am more pessimistic on the medium term impact of a 'no deal' exit. I strongly believe that the uncertainty associated with a rushed 'no deal' exit is likely to have a more prolonged negative impact on the economy."