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Expert comment on the Mayor of London Brexit report

Posted by Warwick Business School at 11 January 2018, 23:00 CET |
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Expert comment on the Mayor of London report finding half a million jobs could be lost in a no-deal Brexit by Nigel Driffield, of Warwick Business School, who is Professor of International Business, and has researched the effect of Brexit on FDI.

Professor Nigel Driffield said: "It seems likely that a no-deal Brexit will be met by a high degree of hostility by the business community, who expect a credible deal to be done that protects jobs and investment.

"In the absence of this, then the 470,000 job losses could well be an under-estimate, especially when considering the supply chain and associated multiplier effects.

"With any of these projections, especially those involving a 'no-deal', the magnitude of the job losses of course depends on the nature of the assumptions, and the likely responses.

"For example, if we assume under a no-deal that all the inward investors in the UK, ranging from US banks to Asian car producers, lose access to EU markets, or to be more precise, have to pay EU common external tariffs, then Brexit will hit some producers - ie small mass market cars like Honda - much harder than, say, JLR.

"What we don't know is how those firms will respond. Some will 'retrench' and focus on UK supply chains, others will focus more on EU production. One can say the same about banks. The loss of passporting will be a big deal, and the estimates for job losses under that scenario could be on the low side.

"This report can be seen in one of two ways. Either this is simply more 'project fear by remoaners' or it is a reasonable statement of the position, depending on ones point of view."

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