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Biden victory offers businesses greater stability and hope on COVID-19 and immigration

Posted by Warwick Business School at 07 November 2020, 11:55 CET |
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Expert comment from Christian Stadler, Professor of Strategic Management at Warwick Business School:

"The most pressing issue is COVID-19 and in that respect, a Biden victory appears to be good news for US businesses. He has shown a greater desire to deal with the health issues and has put together a massive investment programme to help businesses come out of this epidemic.

"It's not all good news for businesses. Biden plans to increase corporate income tax from 21 per cent to 28 per cent and he is likely to bring in more regulation. However, some sectors might actually welcome more regulation. For example, Silicon Valley like welcome clearer rules on issues such as freedom of speech, which is currently an ethical minefield.

"There are other key benefits for businesses under a Biden administration. Stability is very important for businesses and they can expect less policy flip flops under Biden than Trump. Indeed, the University of Chicago has observed that policy uncertainty was greater under Trump than it has at any other time since 1985.

"US businesses will also welcome an end to the trade wars pursued by Trump. That's not to say there won't be ongoing tensions with countries like China on human rights issues, but we don't expect Biden to adopt the same harsh attitude to international trading partners that we have seen in the last few years.

"We can also expect to see a more positive attitude towards immigration under Biden, which is good news for businesses at all levels. Key players such as Microsoft, Google, and Tesla are all led by immigrants.

"Biden's victory is also likely to have a significant impact on businesses in Britain too. The Johnson government would have been more likely to pursue a no deal Brexit following a Trump victory, as they would be hoping for a quick and favourable trade deal with the US, though it is impossible to predict what kind of deal you will get with Trump.

"Under Biden, the US is more likely to favour a close relationship between the UK and the EU and a fairly comprehensive deal. As business leaders in the UK have repeatedly raised concerns about the prospect of a no deal Brexit, they will welcome a Biden victory and the prospect of a closer relationship with the EU."

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