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Ukraine close to EU deal, risking clash with Russia

17 October 2013, 12:49 CET
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Ukraine close to EU deal, risking clash with Russia

Yulia Tymoshenko - Photo EU Council

(KIEV) - Ukraine is close to resolving the saga over jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko with her expected release for treatment abroad, clearing the way for a historic deal with the European Union that risks incurring the Kremlin's wrath.

The Ukrainian government wants to sign an Association Agreement with the European Union at a November 28-29 summit in Vilnius which would mark Kiev's first step on the road to EU membership and a clinical break from Moscow's sway.

But EU leaders have insisted that there can be no deal in Vilnius as long as Tymoshenko, who was jailed for seven years in 2011 on hugely controversial abuse of power charges, remains in detention.

But after months of stalemate a breakthrough appears near in time for the summit, with both the Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych and the former premier herself willing to accept Tymoshenko is released for treatment in Germany.

"We are not far away from Tymoshenko being released for treatment in Germany," EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele said in Brussels. "It won't be next week, but it will be before the Vilnius summit."

After a meeting Fuele and German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle in Kiev last week, Yanukovych for the first time evoked the possibility of a solution "in the near future" to the issue.

"Without this (Tymoshenko's release) the signing of the Agreement is very difficult to imagine," the Ambassador of Germany to Ukraine Christoph Weil said.

While Kiev would still face a long road to membership, the deal would be a decisive rejection of Russian influence which prevailed in Ukraine when it was part of the Tsarist Empire, Soviet Union and even after the fall of the USSR.

One possible solution is a full pardoning of Tymoshenko but Yanukovych appears not ready to give such freedom to his biggest foe for fear of political revenge.

Most likely, Yanukovych will back a special law allowing prisoners such as Tymoshenko to leave for treatment abroad, which would still leave her unable to take part in the presidential polls in 2015.

"The Ukrainian government will seek legal mechanisms so Tymoshenko cannot take an active part in the political process," said Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta think tank.

"Tymoshenko has great energy, organisational skills ... In this sense, she represents a particular threat (to Yanukovych)," he added.

'He realised the threats from Russia'

The decision of the Ukrainian leadership to sign a broad agreement with the EU, which will include the establishment of a free trade zone, infuriated Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose attempts to halt Kiev along the way came to nothing.

Putin, who considers Ukraine as part of Moscow's zone of influence, has warned that Russia will not stand by if Kiev chooses to strengthen political and economic ties with the EU instead of joining a Kremlin-led Customs Union with Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Seeking to support Ukraine in its clash with its former Soviet master, the European Union earlier slammed as unacceptable any attempts of pressure by Russia on independent countries.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev bluntly stated on Tuesday that if the EU-Ukraine agreement is signed, Kiev will have "virtually zero" chance of joining the Customs Union and will risk a negative impact on its trade.

"We will try to avoid negative effects on our trade and economic relations. But, to be honest, my forecast is less than encouraging," Medvedev lamented.

Experts believe that Russia's heavy-handed approach to its relations with Ukraine has prompted Yanukovych and his inner circle of hugely influential oligarch backers to move towards the EU despite the its high export dependence on Moscow.

"The President needs a counterbalance in the relations with Russia," said Olexiy Haran, director of the Kiev Mogyla School of Political Analysis.

Although economic problems in the short term are possible as a result of complications in trade relations with Moscow, Yanukovych wants more predictable and reliable markets in the West.

"He realised that more threats are coming from Russia. Now he needs to move to the EU, otherwise Russia will just swallow him," Haran said.


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