Softly-softly as EU closes in on Czech treaty refusenik

(BRUSSELS) - Refusenik Czech President Vaclav Klaus is the last big hurdle facing the European Union's Lisbon Treaty, since the Irish greenlight, and on Wednesday EU leaders will seek to up the pressure for him to sign.

In Brussels on Wednesday, Czech Prime Minister Jan Fischer will hold talks with Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt of Sweden, the current EU presidency holder, and European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso.

Meanwhile, the Polish speaker of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek, will head to Prague along with Sweden's foreign minister and with a realistic expectation that Poland -- the only other treaty hold-out, will meanwhile formally sign up to treaty

"With all due respect to President Klaus, the Polish president (Lech Kaczynski) will make his own decision, he's already taken it in a sovereign manner," top aide Wladyslaw Stasiak said on Monday.

The diplomatic two-step is deemed essential because rampantly eurosceptic Klaus -- who has likened the EU to the Soviet Union -- is seen by some in Brussels as a law unto himself after his country's chaotic EU presidency prior to the Swedes.

While the Czech parliament has already ratified the document, meant to streamline bloc decision-making but which has stirred europhobia among a clutch of states, Klaus has refused to pass it into law.

Reinfeldt admits that recent calls to Klaus have gone unanswered.

The Czech president's best hopes of scuppering the treaty - since Irish voters greenlighted the text in a second referendum at the weekend -- hinges on disquiet among Britain's main opposition party.

"Not on the cards," said Klaus when asked if he would now sign, given the Irish result. The Czech president was last week ordered by Prague's constitutional court to delay signing until it rules on a fresh complaint by lawmakers.

"President Klaus could argue that he must wait until the result of (Czech) legislative elections" due in June 2010, said Janis Emmanouilidis, an analyst with the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

By early June there must be a general election in Britain, where Conservative leader David Cameron -- way ahead in the opinion polls -- has promised a referendum if he comes to power before all 27 EU nations have ratified the text.

However, Emmanouilidis said it was already "too late" for opponents in Britain to "wake up" -- and Cameron has been doing his best at his party's annual congress to play down the divisive issue among his followers.

One incentive Brussels can offer the Czechs is a portfolio in the next commission.

The current mandate is due to expire on 31 October and if the treaty is not introduced then some countries will have to forego the EU commission post they have held up to now.

Given the delicacy with which Klaus is being approached, it is little wonder that Reinfeldt cautions that "threats would be counterproductive."