Runners and riders for the top Brussels jobs

(BRUSSELS) - Here is a list of runners and riders linked to date with two new jobs at the head of the European Union to be created under the Lisbon Treaty.

National leaders are expected to accelerate informal jockeying for control at a Brussels summit starting Thursday, though no decision is expected during the two days of talks.

1. President of the European Council

TONY BLAIR: The 56-year-old former British premier is the heavyweight, but undeclared, early favourite. He has the clout to talk nose-to-nose with leaders in China, Russia and the United States. But his role in the Iraq conflict, and opposition based on a series of British opt-outs from core EU policies, such as the euro, suggests it may prove impossible to form a consensus around his candidacy.

JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER: Europe's longest-serving leader, Luxembourg's prime minister has said he will take the post if asked. But he could easily become the immovable object that runs into Blair's irresistible force, with doubts also expressed over a sluggish reaction to the global financial crisis.

JAN PETER BALKENENDE: The Dutch government chief said on Wednesday that he is not a candidate. Nevertheless, EU horse-trading form suggests he could yet become a "reluctant" compromise name.

PAAVO TAPIO LIPPONEN: The former Finnish premier is also a relative unknown on the global stage. But a column in the Financial Times on Thursday, setting out his views on the EU's institutional future, has been interpreted as a declaration of interest.

VAIRA VIKE-FREIBERGA: Latvia's "Iron Lady", the former president has a colourful life story and the support of Baltic neighbour Lithuania. At 71, diplomats rate her chances as slim even if the symbolic value of appointing a woman will tempt some.

MARY ROBINSON: The former Irish head of state has effectively ruled herself out of the running, saying she wants to focus on battling global warming.

2. High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy

The job of the foreign affairs supremo can only, by definition, be settled in tandem with the top job. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband has ruled himself out, although comments backing Blair set out a strong vision of Europe's future shape.

The other names mentioned in dispatches are Sweden's foreign minister, Carl Bildt, Austrian counterpart Ursula Plassnik and Finland's EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

In both cases, the history of EU jobs jockeying has often thrown up a surprise winner emerging at the post. Portugal's EU Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso being a case in point in 2004.

The two key posts are created under the Lisbon Treaty. The treaty has not yet been fully ratified but that could happen as early as next week as only the Czechs are yet to sign the text.