Ruling coalition leads in Montenegro vote: exit poll

(PODGORICA) - Montenegro's ruling coalition leads in a parliamentary vote held Sunday, according to an exit poll, and is expected to stay at the helm of the tiny Balkans nation during the first years of EU entry talks.

The centre-left European Montenegro coalition headed by veteran politician Milo Djukanovic has won 46.1 percent of votes, well ahead of the largest opposition bloc, the Democratic Front, which took 20 percent, according to the exit poll by the University of Podgorica presented on state television.

The exit poll, which has a two-percent margin of error, was released shortly after polls closed at 8:00 pm (1800 GMT).

Preliminary results based on a representative sample of voters by independent election monitor CEMI confirmed the trend. The first official results are expected to be released Monday.

If the polls are right, it will mark the ruling party's third win in as many elections since Montenegro's independence from decades-long partner Serbia in 2006.

The surveys suggest the ruling coalition has not won an outright majority in the 81-seat parliament but can easily form one teaming up with its traditional allies, the smaller parties representing minorities.

The government had called early elections in a bid to capitalise on the European Union's decisionin June to open accession talks with Podgorica. The ruling coalition also wants to go into the EU entry talks with a new four-year mandate.

After voting in Podgorica earlier on Sunday, Djukanovic said he expected voters to keep their own interests at heart by "keeping stability in Montenegro and boosting economic development... and continuing the road towards European and NATO integration".

During the campaign, he has hit out at the opposition, which he accused of undermining Montenegro's independence by seeking closer ties with Serbia.

Djukanovic is the only leader in the volatile Balkans whose party has survived and won every election since the start of the region's bloody 1990s wars. Since independence he has served twice as prime minister and was president from 1998 to 2002.

For economist Slavica Petrovic, Djukanovic's coalition was the only choice as the divided opposition parties offered no real alternative.

"It is better to have confidence in those already trying to find a solution for the problems," she said, adding that the centre-left government "is doing the best it can in grave crisis conditions".

But the Democratic Front, led by former foreign minister Miodrag Lekic, has underlined the ruling party's weaknesses: an unemployment rate of 20 percent and ongoing claims of government corruption.

"We need to change the air in Montenegro. The same people have been at the same positions with cosmetic changes at the top of the ladder," information technology expert Milos Asanovic told AFP, explaining why he voted for the opposition.

"Corruption is a widespread phenomenon and I have the impression that now because there is no money it is getting worse and worse," he said.

Independent monitor CEMI said that overall turnout was 70.3 percent, slightly higher than during the 2009 vote, when it reached 66.9 percent.

In its annual progress report, the European Commission noted that Montenegro, which has some 625,000 inhabitants, has implemented key economic reforms, but said it should make more efforts to uphold the rule of law and fight organised crime and corruption.

Montenegro's economy grew by 2.7 percent in 2011, with the government forecasting an expansion of just 0.5 percent this year. State debt has reached a "worrisome" 58 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), its central bank has said.

Montenegro's relatively undiversified economy relies heavily on foreign investment, which drove an economic boom between 2006 and 2008. The average monthly salary is 480 euros ($620).

Of the six former Yugoslav republics, only Slovenia is a member of the European Union, since 2004, with Croatia set to become the bloc's newest member next year.