Israel spat raises questions on Turkey's orientation

(ANKARA) - The latest spat between Israel and Turkey has furthered poisoned ties between the estranged allies and raises new questions over whether Ankara is drifting away from the West and towards its Middle Eastern neighbours.

Turkey was infuriated over Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon's public dressing down of its ambassador over a Turkish television series, and threatened to withdraw the envoy unless it received a formal apology.

Bowing to the ultimatum, Ayalon sent a letter of apology late Wednesday and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed hope the two allies would now put the crisis behind them ahead of a visit Sunday by Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak to Ankara.

But analysts here say the row will cast a lasting shadow on the relationship between the two countries which flourished under a 1996 military deal but nosedived amid Ankara's harsh criticism of Israel's Gaza war last year.

"Even though Israel has apologised to Turkey, one should not expect this incident not to have an impact on bilateral ties ... It is not difficult to guess that it will become more difficult to conduct relations with (Israel)," columnist Sedat Ergin wrote in the mass-circulation Hurriyet daily.

Israel's apology may lead Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to feel more justified in his almost daily criticism of Israel and adopt a tougher line, he said.

"The dominant view in Ankara is that 'Israel needs us more than before. Israel cannot risk losing us'," Ergin wrote.

At the root of Turkey's self-confidence is its improving ties with Middle Eastern countries as a result of the Islamist-rooted government's active search for "soft power" in the region.

Turkey, a predominantly Muslim nation, is run by a strictly secular system and has for years put the West at the centre of its foreign policy, obtaining NATO membership in 1952 and seeking to join the European Union since the 1960s.

In less than a year, Erdogan and Turkish President Gul went to Syria three times and held talks with the leaders of Jordan, Egypt, Libya and Iran, signing a raft of agreements on boosting cooperation and lifting visas.

When receiving Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Monday, Erdogan again lashed out at Israel, questinoning its Gaza policy and criticizing its suspected nuclear arms.

"Is the Israeli government in favour of peace or not?... Gaza was bombed again yesterday. Why?... There were no rocket attacks," he said.

The chill in ties with Israel and increased contacts with countries viewed with suspicion by the West has led many to question whether Turkey is deviating from is decades-old pro-Western policy.

It is a charge that Ankara rejects, saying that it remains committed to its bid to join the European Union despite the slow pace of accession negotiations and European opposition to its aspirations.

"If Israeli policy turns towards a policy of peace orientation... next day, the Turkish-Israeli relations will change in a positive direction," Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters in London on Tuesday.

Cengiz Aktar, political analyst, diagrees.

"In this incident with Israel, the government is trying to depart from the heritage of the military policy followed since 1995. But it often falls into excess in an anti-Semitic rhetoric," he said.

Among the reasons for Ankara's attitude were populism, electioneering and fatigue towards Europe, Aktar explained.

Some analysts, on the other hand, see Turkey's increased contacts with the Middle East as an innocent effort to raise its regional profile and brush aside the risk of Ankara deviating from the West.

"Turkey cannot forget the West and it is wrong to think that Turkey is moving away from the West," Seyfi Tashan from Bilkent University said. "Turkey is only trying to advantage of geopolitical situation."