Putin watches on as Europe flounders over Greek crisis

(MOSCOW) - Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to be savouring Europe's struggles over the Greek crisis but not in a position to offer a financial lifeline despite cosying up to Athens, analysts said.

As the dispute between Greece and its creditors has grown increasingly ugly, authorities in Moscow and Athens have made a show of bolstering ties between their two Orthodox nations, in a display that has rattled Brussels.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has visited Russia -- locked in its own stand-off with the European Union over Ukraine -- twice since April, overseeing an agreement on a 2 billion euro ($2.18 billion) gas pipeline and denouncing Western sanctions against Moscow.

In the wake of Greece's resounding 'No' vote to a bailout plan in a referendum on Sunday, Putin was among the first leaders that Tsipras called to discuss the situation.

But although Russia -- embroiled in an economic crisis over Ukraine -- is watching on with interest from the sidelines it looks unlikely to get directly involved in Greece's economic issues with its creditors.

- 'Malevolent opportunism' -

"What Russia really has in mind over Greece is simply to 'gather your rosebuds while you may'," James Nixey, from London-based Chatham House think tank, told AFP.

"It will exploit any areas of weakness that it can."

Despite the spate of what he called diplomatic "grandstanding", Nixey said Moscow does not appear to have a long-term strategy on Greece but has instead seized on Europe's travails with a "malevolent opportunism".

"Russia is opportunistic, but it is not omnipotent," he said.

"From the political point of view the Greek crisis is positive for Russia," said Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow.

Europe's failure to resolve the dire situation facing Greece allows Moscow to raise doubts about how it can help solve the crisis in Ukraine, Baunov said, while also casting doubt on the continent's unity as a whole.

"The Greek 'No' vote allows them to draw a new fault line and to exploit it," Baunov said.

Russia's warming ties with Athens have fanned fears in some European capitals that Moscow could use Greece as a "Trojan horse" to disrupt the 28-nation bloc's shaky consensus over Ukraine.

But while Putin and Tsipras discussed the "further development of Russian-Greek cooperation" in their phone call on Monday there has been no talk of a Russian bailout, and analysts say that none looks likely.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Monday said instead that Moscow hopes "our Greek partners reach the necessary compromise with creditors as soon as possible".

- Economically dangerous -

Meanwhile, any schadenfreude Moscow may be feeling over Europe's disarray is likely to be tempered by the negative impact that an economic downturn caused by a possible Greek exit from the euro could have on Russia.

The EU remains Russia's biggest trading partner despite sanctions and a Russian embargo on agricultural products from the West, and, as uncertainty over Greece appeared to hit oil prices, stock markets in Moscow and the ruble both dropped.

Russia's economy minister, Alexei Ulyukayev admitted that the country was already "indirectly" impacted by the Greek referendum but insisted the consequences for Russia would not be severe.

"I think the markets will correct themselves quite quickly," he said.

"Economically this is not good news for Moscow," Baunov from the Carnegie Centre said, however.

"A weakening in the European economy does not play in favour of the already fragile Russian economy."