Pro-euro conservative leads in Finnish presidential election

(HELSINKI) - Pro-European Sauli Niinistoe looks set to win the first round of Finland's presidential election, although his once towering lead has slipped during a campaign overshadowed by the eurozone crisis, even though the president no longer decides EU affairs.

Niinistoe, a respected member of Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen's conservative National Coalition Party and one of Finland's most experienced politicians, has consistently enjoyed a wide lead in opinion polls, with the latest survey published Friday giving him 32 percent of votes.

Although well ahead of his rivals, his lead has slipped from as high as 51 percent in December, increasing the probability of a second round of voting.

If no candidate obtains more than 50 percent of votes Sunday, a run-off will be held on February 5.

Pekka Haavisto, the 53-year-old EU-friendly Green candidate, has surprisingly soared to second place in recent weeks from single digit obscurity to 13 percent in the latest survey, while 65-year-old eurosceptic Paavo Vaeyrynen of the traditionally agrarian Centre Party, is in third place with around 11 percent of voter intentions.

The populist and deeply eurosceptic Finns Party candidate Timo Soini, 49, has meanwhile seen his support dwindle from double digits to six percent, but has continued to colour the debate with his virulently anti-euro rhetoric.

Analysts say the intense discussion during the debates, as well as the gradual coalescing of the top three has set the stage for a riveting election Sunday.

Campaigning in Finland's presidential election ends Saturday and candidates are expected to stick to tradition, focusing their final efforts on the Helsinki region as they try to drum up last-minute support.

Soini is the only candidate who will skirt the capital, wrapping up his campaign in cities in eastern Finland.

"We are ... not taking this lightly," Soini said Saturday to Helsingin Sanomat, Finland's main daily of reference.

With 32.7 percent or 1.36 million ballots cast in advance voting, and a record number of overseas voters polling in advance, observers are expecting a high turnout in the election.

"Finns are interested in this presidential election in spite of the fact that the directly-elected president only decides on foreign and security policy," said a Helsingin Sanomat editorial.

The president and government jointly run Finland's foreign policy. However in October parliament voted to hand EU policy to the government, with the prime minister now the main representative in EU affairs.

Despite that change, the euro issue has dominated the campaign because it remains "pretty close to the hearts of voters," Helsinki University political science professor Tuomo Martikainen told AFP.

Finland, counting 5.3 million inhabitants, is in an elite club of eurozone members with a triple-A credit rating and is key to any bailout deals.

Niinistoe -- instrumental in leading Finland into the eurozone during his tenure as finance minister from 1996-2003 -- has withstood the fiery debate on Finland's role in the euro club.

Many Finns have voiced frustration over European pressure to bail out Greece following what they perceive as Athens' mismanagement of its economy, especially after Finns themselves endured severe austerity measures in the 1990s to put their own house in order.

But throughout the campaign, Niinistoe, 63, has insisted that Finland's export-reliant economy needs a functioning eurozone and that abandoning the euro is not an option.

"Finland's position in the world has been built on membership in the European Union and in the eurozone," he has stressed.

The Finnish economy is still relatively strong, but the eurozone slowdown is nonetheless expected to hit the Nordic country.

Growth is forecast to slow to 0.4 percent in 2012 from 2.6 percent in 2011.