Croatia elects president to lead it into EU

(ZAGREB) - Croatians elect on Sunday their third president since the country's independence in 1991, with the winner expected to lead the former Yugoslav republic into coveted membership of the European Union.

But opinion polls show that a successor to incumbent Stipe Mesic, who stands down in February after serving the maximum two five-year terms, will be decided in a run-off with none of the 12 candidates likely to secure more than 50 percent of the vote.

Ivo Josipovic of the main Social Democrat Party (SDP) is virtually certain to enter the January 10 run-off, according to the polls which give the 52-year-old an average lead of 15 percentage points over his opponents.

Analysts cite Josipovic's untarnished political career as one of his advantages, but some warn that the law expert and classical music composer lacks political charisma.

According to surveys a tight battle for the second run-off place will be between two independents -- controversial Zagreb mayor Milan Bandic and former member of the ruling conservatives Nadan Vidosevic.

The populist Bandic, 54, is a former veteran SDP member who largely avoided confrontation during the campaign, arguing he was a "man of deeds and not of words."

Independent media have however criticised his alleged links with corruption in the capital, while some analysts have warned against his "empty rhetoric."

The fight against high-level corruption that is closely monitored by Brussels dominated the pre-election period, as well as economic recovery in a country expected to suffer a five percent contraction this year.

That may play to the advantage of Vidosevic, a former member of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) who has headed the Croatian Chamber of Commerce since 1995.

The 49-year-old's charm and refinement are perceived as his main assets, but some commentators warn his credibility could be jeopardised by the unknown origins of his wealth, which Vidosevic says is the result of "smart investments."

Some 4.4 million people, including more than 400,000 living abroad, mostly in neighbouring Bosnia, are eligible to choose a successor to Mesic who successfully transformed the country from a nationalist autocracy into a parliamentary democracy.

But Mesic did not manage to steer his nation into European Union membership, with accession negotiations blocked by neighbouring Slovenia over a border row.

The talks, started in 2005, were halted for almost a year before resuming in October, with Croatia now hoping to join the bloc under its new president by January 2012.

Mesic was elected in early 2000 after the death of Franjo Tudjman, who ruled Croatia with an iron fist through the 1991-1995 independence war and up to his death in December 1999.

"Tudjman was the founder of the Croatian state who cared much more about the state, sovereignty and the country's ethnic purity, than about democracy," Zarko Puhovski, a political analyst, told AFP.

"He was a man who very often showed a frowning face to his voters and had an ambition to criticise them in a paternal way which is not in line with a modern understanding of the position of a president."

Unlike Tudjman, Mesic "showed the human face of that institution," Puhovski said, adding that the most important achievements of his rule were the curtailing of presidential prerogatives and the depoliticising of the army.

Analysts say that Sunday's vote will differ greatly from when the relaxed and charming Mesic was elected as an antithesis to the authoritarian Tudjman.

"The third president does not have to be a polar opposite to anyone, he or she does not have to be any kind of a reaction," as was the case in 2000, because Mesic is still popular, political analyst Marijana Grbesa told AFP.