UKIP success sounds alarm bells for Britain's Tories

(LONDON) - British Prime Minister David Cameron may once have dismissed them as "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" but the UK Independence Party is riding a wave of success which could come back to hit him.

As Cameron's Conservatives struggle for support amid biting austerity measures and fractions in the coalition government, UKIP is celebrating its best-ever performances in recent by-elections.

Both parties are fiercely eurosceptic at a time when the eurozone crisis has left most Britons wanting to leave the European Union, according to opinion polls.

UKIP's recent success prompted plain-speaking leader Nigel Farage -- who once told EU president Herman Van Rompuy he had "the charisma of a damp rag" -- to claim it was no longer a fringe party but the "third force" in British politics.

That may be premature -- UKIP still does not have a seat in the House of Commons.

But some senior Conservatives are worried enough about UKIP's ability to poach eurosceptic Tory voters to propose a pact with them at the next general election in 2015.

"UKIP is now an electoral threat to the Conservative Party," Cameron's elections adviser Michael Fabricant wrote in a discussion paper last month, adding they may have cost the Tories 40 seats at the 2010 general election, when they fell 20 short of a the 326 majority target.

"This threat has arisen because Europe is once again an issue of concern to many voters across the United Kingdom... UKIP's message is gaining traction with many, and fast."

He added: "It is time to consider actively whether a rapprochement might be possible."

The possible basis of any such deal is to offer a referendum on whether or not Britain should stay in the EU in return for UKIP agreeing not to field candidates against the Conservatives in marginal seats.

Cameron has so far avoided offering a clear "in-out" referendum despite strong pressure for clarity on the issue from his party and his anti-EU rhetoric in public.

He says instead that he cannot accept the "status quo" on Europe and wants to repatriate some powers.

This is not enough for Farage. He dismisses the prospect of a deal with Cameron outright, saying he "couldn't even contemplate" doing business with him.

The UKIP leader has not forgiven Cameron for his 2006 "fruitcakes" comment, or for his "abusive" reaction to a furore last month which saw a local council remove three children from foster parents because they were UKIP members.

"I'd cross the street to avoid him. There's nothing to discuss," Farage told AFP. "I know many people in his party who are appalled by his behaviour."

But Farage hints that he would consider talks if the Conservatives had a different leader -- he has publicly praised Education Secretary Michael Gove -- and if a referendum on EU membership was guaranteed.

"That would need to be a promise written in blood," he said.

For many Conservatives, Farage himself is a major reason to consider the idea of teaming up with UKIP.

Britain's best-known European Parliament lawmaker, his no-nonsense, irreverent speeches have drawn four million viewers to the party's YouTube channel.

He prides himself on keeping up the views of people in the "pubs, coffee mornings and yes, even the golf clubs of Britain."

Fabricant's paper described him as "a former Thatcherite who sounds like a Conservative, who looks like a Conservative and who in other circumstances probably would be a Conservative."

It also argued the increase in UKIP support is likely to be mostly due to Conservatives switching sides and described any pact as "the final rapprochement between warring brothers."

For their part, UKIP are approaching the question from a position of strength.

They came a best-ever second in two by-elections last month, ahead of Cameron's Conservatives and their junior coalition partners the Liberal Democrats.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, an authority on British electoral behaviour, said UKIP support had been boosted by discontent with the Tories plus the eurozone crisis validating the party's ideas.

"One of the arguments that the eurosceptics had to deal with was it would be horrendous to be in the slow lane of Europe because it would be economically disadvantageous," he said.

"The view now is 'we're in the slow lane and thank God we're there'."

Curtice played down the prospect of a pact between UKIP and the Conservatives, saying UKIP would be concerned about the impact it would have on their chances of a major breakthrough in European elections in 2014.

But the debate highlights the struggle the Conservatives will likely face to secure a majority at the general election in two-and-a-half years' time.