Boris and Dave: EU vote campaign takes personal turn
(LONDON) - Boris Johnson's backing for Brexit pits him directly against Prime Minister David Cameron -- an old acquaintance who won the job that many thought the charismatic mayor of London was always destined for.
Both men are in the Conservative party and were elected MPs in 2001 but their ties go much further back to the 1970s when they attended the prestigious Eton College school and then Oxford University.
"Call it an Eton mess. This is precisely the confrontation that was not meant to happen," Guardian columnist Matthew D'Ancona wrote.
He described it as "the battle that David Cameron and Boris Johnson have tried to avoid for many years".
British newspapers jumped on the gaffe-prone mayor's dramatic declaration on Sunday that he would campaign for Britain to leave the EU in June 23 referendum, saying that he had "electrified" the campaign.
The right-wing Daily Telegraph said Monday it was "Cameron's worst fear", while the left-leaning Daily Mirror said it was a "Dagger in Cam's heart" and the Guardian called it a "humiliation" for the prime minister.
The move by the 51-year-old Johnson has been seen as a major boost for the "Leave" camp, which has so far been riven by bitter infighting and lacking in a national figurehead.
- 'Jokes and snappy comments' -
The London mayor has been flirting with the pro-Brexit camp for months and has rejected any political calculation behind the decision.
But experts said it means he has more chance of succeeding Cameron -- an ambition he is believed to have held ever since university, when he was seen as more popular and intellectually gifted than his 49-year-old rival.
"The calculation he has made is that if he loses the referendum he could still become leader of the Conservative party," Anand Menon, a professor in European politics at King's College London, told AFP.
"A significant number of Conservative MPs back Brexit and they have the first vote and a majority of Conservative party members back Brexit and they have the second vote" in the leadership election, he said.
Johnson was elected mayor for the first time in 2008, prompting him to give up his seat in parliament.
He regained it in the last general election in 2015.
If the pro-EU vote wins the day in the referendum, it would be a setback for him but he would be far from "finished", said Tim Oliver, a researcher at the London School of Economics.
If Britain does vote to leave the European Union "he could become prime minister," Oliver said.
But Johnson would then face the arduous task of negotiating the first EU exit by a member state -- a situation that Cameron could look forward to with "some schadenfreude" -- or malicious joy.
Whatever happens, University of Kent politics professor Matthew Goodwin said that Johnson's influence should not be exaggerated.
"Boris Johnson is an important figure but on his own there's very little evidence that he can change the overall result," he told AFP.
Oliver said that Britons will look forward to his "jokes and snappy comments" but ultimately Cameron "will get more serious attention as prime minister".