EU summit focus on Europe's top job, Irish vote guarantees

(BRUSSELS) - EU leaders debate Thursday the future of the European Union's most high-profile post and what guarantees to give Ireland to ensure its voters back a vast package of reforms in a new referendum.

Over two days in Brussels, the leaders will also throw their support behind efforts to tighten financial-sector supervision in Europe despite reluctance in Britain to hand over powers to new EU authorities.

Barring any major surprise, Jose Manuel Barroso, the conservative former Portuguese premier, will be given a green light to return as European Commission president but he is unlikely to win a legally binding new mandate.

Little more than a week after European parliament elections that more than one in two citizens boycotted, the former Portuguese premier is virtually assured of a second term five-year term.

Despite criticism for poorly handling the financial and economic crisis, Barroso -- whose commission will have an operating budget of 138 billion euros next year -- is the only real candidate.

Clouding his nomination, is the stance of the EU's historic twin driving motors -- France and Germany -- which have been tepid in their support and want to first hear his plans for the next five years.

The EU's executive body is responsible for drawing up legislation that impacts daily on the lives of almost half a billion Europeans, as well as enforcing the measures already in place.

Its president -- who like the commissioners is appointed rather than elected -- has significant leverage to influence the institution's legislative priorities.

Publicly, France and Germany say they are reluctant to appoint Barroso outright so as not to upset voters in Ireland who will be asked to vote for a second time on a vast package of reforms they rejected a year ago.

Yet by leaving him hanging, diplomats say, they could be aiming to influence the appointment of the policy area commissioners, particularly those posts they covet, like that of internal markets commissioner in France's case.

Barroso's mandate only expires at the end of October, so detractors argue that there is no rush, yet any delay could damage his ambitions.

If he is chosen now, his selection could be endorsed by the new EU parliament next month on the basis of the existing Nice Treaty, with a simple majority of deputies present in the chamber.

But if the process is delayed until after the Lisbon Treaty is ratified, perhaps at the end of the year, he would need support from an absolute majority of the 736-member house, regardless of how many deputies are present.

The future of the new treaty could also go some way to being decided, with Ireland ready to announce a second referendum should it secure guarantees for voters.

Irish Foreign Minister Micheal Martin said Monday he was "quietly confident" that Dublin's wishes will be respected, with commitments on social issues like abortion, taxation, and the respect of Ireland's military neutrality.

But Ireland still faces stiff opposition to a request to have the guarantees enshrined in a binding protocol, which all EU nations would have to formally ratify.

Some nations fear that would reopen the whole fraught treaty debate.

The EU has almost doubled in size since the last treaty was agreed but it has continued to limp along with same institutional arrangements, awaiting ratification of the new text, which pro-Europeans hope will enter force next year.

Voters in Ireland rejected the treaty in a referendum almost exactly a year ago, but they are expected to hold a new plebiscite in October, with surveys suggesting it would pass the second time.

Of the other EU nations, only the Czech Republic and Poland must complete the technical ratification, while a legal challenge is pending in Germany.

European Council