Ireland will vote two-to-one for EU treaty: poll

(DUBLIN) - Ireland would vote two-to-one to back the EU's Lisbon Treaty if a re-run of the referendum was held this year, according to an opinion poll on Sunday.

Support for the treaty -- designed to streamline decision-making in an enlarged European Union -- has surged according to the Sunday Business Post/Red C poll with 58 percent in favour, 28 percent against and 14 percent undecided.

When the undecideds are excluded the pollsters said the results mean 67 percent would back the poll and 33 would vote against.

"In analysing the results it is apparent that 20-25 percent of those who voted No to the treaty last year now state that they are unlikely to vote in a second referendum," the newspaper said.

"Those who voted Yes last time are much more likely to turn out and vote against.

"A further 20 percent of those who voted No last time now suggest that they have changed their mind and will vote Yes when the referendum if held again."

It says the poll suggests the treaty will be ratified by recession-hit Ireland as long as the government does not become complacent and it receives assurances from EU partners on issues which concerned the Irish in the first vote.

On Friday another pollster, Lansdowne Market Research, said there had been a "seismic change" in attitudes in the ailing former "Celtic Tiger" and 58 percent either agreed or strongly agreed voters would now back the treaty.

Irish voters sparked a major crisis in the European bloc last June by rejecting the treaty -- the successor to the defunct EU constitution -- by 53 percent.

Ireland's rejection slowed integration efforts just as EU backers say the bloc needs to show it can take quick, coordinated action to tackle the financial crisis.

Prime Minister Brian Cowen said he is prepared to hold another vote on the treaty -- probably later this year -- on the basis of concessions that have still to be finalised with EU partners.

Ireland has changed its mind before. In 2001 voters rejected the EU's Nice Treaty, but the result was overturned the following year in a second referendum when clarifying declarations were given by other member states.

Red C interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults on January 26-28.