Ukraine's pro-Western progress set back in gas crisis: analysts

(KIEV) - Ukraine's chances of quickly building reinforced bonds with the West are dwindling with each day that an exasperated Europe must deal with the Russia-Ukraine gas crisis, analysts say.

With hundreds of thousands of Europeans freezing without gas supplies and no end to the crisis in sight, analysts say Ukraine's image in the West is taking a beating.

And unlike in previous spats between the two countries, this time Ukraine's pro-Western government is not being given the benefit of the doubt over Russia.

"Europe is unhappy not only with Russia's actions but also those of Ukraine," said Volodymyr Fesenko of the Kiev-based Penta think tank.

"The number of Ukraino-sceptics is growing in the EU. The atmosphere in Ukraine-EU relations will get worse," he said.

The last few days in particular -- when Russia accused Ukraine of reneging on a European Union-brokered deal to get the gas flowing again -- have been especially damaging, analysts said.

"Ukraine is getting more of the blame this time," said Andrew Wilson, an expert on Ukraine at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "There has been a certain amount of exasperation with Ukraine's tactics since the weekend."

A heated exchange Wednesday between Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and her Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico, in which he said he was "not interested" in Russian-Ukrainian relations, highlighted the growing frustration, analysts said.

When a similar pricing dispute broke out in 2006, Europe was more willing to accept the argument that Russia was bullying its ex-Soviet neighbour by cutting off gas supplies, analysts said.

At the time, Ukraine was still basking in the aftermath of the pro-Western Orange Revolution of a year earlier and being lauded as a leading reformer in the former Soviet Union.

But much has changed since 2006.

Interminable infighting between President Viktor Yushchenko and his Orange Revolution allies -- in particular Tymoshenko -- has paralysed the country's political system. Free-market reforms have stalled and the economy is in freefall. And alleged connections between high-ranking Ukrainian officials and a Swiss-based firm that acts as an intermediary in Russian-Ukrainian gas deals, Rosukrenergo, have raised questions about continued corruption.

"The idea that the Orange Revolution would lead to a direct path towards democracy and free-market values has fallen apart," said Katinka Barysch, an analyst with the London-based Centre for European Reform.

"There is an impression that Ukraine is not a very well-run country and that certainly isn't to Ukraine's advantage when it comes to EU and NATO integration."

Ukrainian analyst Andry Yermolayev said the Orange Revolution had become "a page in Ukraine's history" and that the country's image today was one of a country "lost, hysterical and conflict-ridden."

Ukraine's efforts to join the NATO military alliance were already suffering before the crisis, with NATO last month backing away from placing Ukraine and another ex-Soviet republic, Georgia, on a fast track for membership.

Many in Ukraine argue that driving a wedge between Ukraine and Europe is exactly what Russia is hoping to do with the crisis.

Both sides have accused each other of provoking the crisis, which saw Russia cut off supplies to Ukraine's domestic market on New Year's Day in a dispute over gas payments and prices. Supplies to Europe were cut off after Russia accused Ukraine of illegally siphoning gas for its domestic market -- a charge vehemently denied by Kiev.

"Russia is doing everything it can to make Europe accept the idea that Ukraine has failed politically and financially," Vira Nanivska of Kiev's International Centre for Political Studies said.

Whoever is behind the crisis, Russia appears to have learned from previous disputes with Ukraine and the early days of last year's war with Georgia and has had more success this time in winning over European opinion, Wilson said.

"Russia has put more effort into putting its case forward this time, with some success," Wilson said. "For now, it looks like Ukraine is losing on points because of its perceived lack of cooperation."