EU treaty not likely to be in place till 2010: Juncker

(BRUSSELS) - Luxembourg Premier Jean-Claude Juncker broke the silence on Wednesday about the future of the EU's Lisbon treaty, the first European leader to admit it probably will not be in force as planned next year.

"I don't think the treaty will be in place in June, when the next European (parliamentary) elections will take place," he told a forum, voicing what many in Brussels have been saying in private.

"In order to make it enter in force in June 2009, the treaty would have to be ratified by all countries before the end of February," he added.

"It's not realistic to consider that this could be," said Juncker.

"So my guess would be that the treaty will enter into force around the first of January 2010."

Ireland sent shockwaves through Europe on June 12 when a referendum rejected the treaty. It was the only country in the 27-nation European Union to hold a referendum but all nations must ratify the text before it can come into force.

Apart from Ireland, only Sweden and the Czech Republic have yet to ratify the text, and will do so via the parliamentary route.

The crisis, which recalls the rejection of a full-scale constitution by French and Dutch voters in 2005, ruined the original plan to get the treaty up and running by January 1, 2009.

The Lisbon Treaty, drawn up to replace the failed constitution, would introduce an EU president and new foreign policy supremo and cut the number of national vetoes in EU voting.

These and the other treaty measures are designed to streamline the creaking institutions of the European Union, which is currently operating under rules designed before the "big-bang" of 2004 which brought 10 mainly ex-Communist Eastern European nations into the fold.

In recent days several European officials have admitted they do not expect the treaty to come into force until 2010, but Juncker is the first to say so as clearly on the record.

Luxembourg's prime minister, who was addressing a forum in Brussels as the head of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, highlighted Dublin's difficulties in organising a second referendum in the current climate.

"Given the economic crisis we are dealing with, given the fact that confidence is lacking, given the fact that governments are increasingly unpopular all around Europe, organising a referendum on the European treaty is a dangerous path to take in those countries," he said.

The Irish government is due to present its analysis of the "no" vote and its consequences at a European summit in Brussels on October 15-16. However, no one is expected that it will propose a solution then.

Until the Lisbon Treaty is ratified the EU's existing Nice Treaty, which came into effect in 2003, will continue to apply.

If the existing treaties are still in force in June 2009 the European parliament will have to be reduced from 785 deputies to 736.

Last month Ireland's Europe minister Dick Roche admitted for the first time that a second Irish vote may be necessary.

Since then research commissioned by the Irish government showed that lack of information was the main reason Irish people voted "No".

There are currently two schools of thought on how to escape from the institutional crisis, according to diplomatic sources.

The first, supported by France and Germany, is to press Dublin to hold a fresh plebiscite ahead of the European elections, with voters given extra reassurances, so as to bring the EU out of its gridlock, said a source close to the Czech government, which will assume the EU's rotating presidency in January.

The other camp, which includes the Austrians, the Czechs and the Swedes, says that pushing Ireland into a new referendum early next year risks another massive "no" vote and an even bigger mess for Europe, he added.