Ireland struggling to get out of EU treaty tangle
(DUBLIN) - The Irish government is struggling to find a way out of its EU treaty crisis, with speculation that a second referendum could be possible in late 2009.
A majority of voters are against holding a second plebiscite, polls show, following the June 12 rejection of the European Union's Lisbon reform treaty that sent shockwaves across the 27-member bloc.
Prime Minister Brian Cowen's government, still reeling from the blow, has started hunting for a way out of the political impasse that would be acceptable to both Dublin and Brussels.
"We will not have a road-map as to how to go forward -- or any set of proposals -- until way into the far end of this year," Europe Minister Dick Roche told AFP.
"We will have a progress report in October for the European Council," when leaders from the member states gather for a summit.
He said a scientific analysis of the Irish rejection of the treaty and what it means -- which has been commissioned by the government -- would be received shortly before that.
Media speculation has suggested that a referendum re-run in September or October 2009 is among the options being studied by the government.
The Lisbon Treaty, reports say, would be amended before then to take into consideration Irish voters' concerns, notably neutrality, abortion, taxes and keeping Ireland's European commissioner.
However, even in the case of a "yes" vote in such a second referendum, the EU would still be in a fix because it would come after the June 2009 elections to the European Parliament.
It would also come too late for the appointment of the new European commissioners, scheduled to take office in early November 2009.
Within all Ireland's main parties, there are concerns about a possible second rebuff if the referendum is re-run.
Roche emphasised that the holding of another plebisccite "was still not certain".
"Either suggesting that there will be a referendum or that the date will be the second half (of 2009) is premature," he said.
"Nothing has been settled yet. Nothing of that nature has really been discussed by the government yet."
Sketching out the "road-map" forward is a delicate matter for the government, which must balance the concerns of Irish voters and of the 26 other EU member states.
Ireland is the only member to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, which has to be ratified by all the countries in the bloc to take effect.
Roche is dismissive of a poll commissioned by the British think-tank Open Europe, which suggested that 71 percent of Irish voters were against holding a second referendum.
Of those who expressed an opinion, 62 percent said they would vote "no" in a second vote -- up from the 53.4 percent who did so on June 12.
The united front among Ireland's major parties, which all campaigned for a "yes" vote -- the small, left-wing Sinn Fein party campaigned otherwise -- has begun to fragment.
One government initiative, a plan to recall the Dail (lower house of parliament) for a sitting in early September to establish an all-party committee on the treaty, has received a frosty reception from the main opposition Fine Gael and Labour parties.
Labour's Europe spokesman Joe Costello dismissed the proposal as "premature".
"Instead of reconvening for a day at the beginning of September to address the Lisbon Treaty issues alone, the Dail should reconvene to address all the issues that are in urgent need of being addressed and remain in session," he said.
Mary O'Rourke, an influential lawmaker in Cowen's governing Fianna Fail party, described suggestions of a second vote as "foolish talk".
"I know the antipathy the first one (referendum) evoked from the electorate," she told RTE state radio, describing how people she met while campaigning had "many and varied" reasons for voting "no".
"As soon as one was addressed, well, then there was another one.
"I feel that that would be the way it would continue" should another referendum be held.
"To go again is foolhardy."
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