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Eurozone inflation spikes to record 4.0 pct on oil prices

30 June 2008, 17:50 CET

(BRUSSELS) - Inflation in the 15 eurozone countries shot up to a record 4.0 percent in June on the back of soaring oil prices, official figures showed Monday, bolstering expectations the European Central Bank will hike interest rates later this week.

The June 12-month inflation figure, up from 3.7 percent in May, was the highest since the launch of the euro in 1999 and topped analyst forecasts for 3.9 percent, as polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

Red-hot oil prices, which saw a barrel of crude rise to over 143 dollars Monday, have been driving overall inflation to new records, pinching the purchasing power of consumers also hit by increasing food costs.

Record inflation, which has triggered protests by fishermen and truckers recently, adds to consumer and businesses' pain just as they are struggling to cope with flagging economic activity.

Hundreds of truckers staged new protests against high fuel prices across France on Monday, blocking main highways and snarling commuter traffic around Paris while workers blocked a Total Petrochemicals depot in southern Belgium.

With governments under pressure to provide relief from high prices, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia warned that any new measures should not "create new distortions in the market.

"We need to take care in avoiding creating an inflationary spiral and (focus) efforts here to protect the weakest parts of our population," he said.

The jump to 4.0 percent in June took eurozone inflation even further away from the ECB's comfort zone, which it defines as annual consumer price growth of close to but less than 2.0 percent.

Despite slowing economic growth, the ECB has signalled that it will raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 percent on Thursday in an attempt to cool inflation.

However, many economists said that with inflation at 4.0 percent, and likely to nudge higher, a second interest rate hike has become a distinct possibility.

"The further marked rise in eurozone consumer price inflation to a record high of 4.0 percent in June surely rubber stamps an ECB interest rate hike from 4.00 percent to 4.25 percent," said economist Howard Archer at consultants Global Insight.

"Indeed, the extent of the jump to 4.0 percent from 3.7 percent in May is likely to fuel expectations that interest rates will rise higher still, especially as the inflation rate is now more than double the ECB's target."

Although ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet has indicated that the ECB currently has only one rate hike up its sleeve, further inflation increases raise the chances that more will follow, said Commerzbank's Christoph Weil.

"Concerns ... are likely to increase during the months ahead as the steady advance in oil prices will probably push inflation up to 4.25 percent," he said.

"As a result, the market will no doubt be speculating increasingly about ECB rate hikes," he added.

However, other analysts said that increasingly feeble growth would eventually cool inflationary pressures, although that might not be until well after the European summer.

"Oil prices have failed to stabilize recently so it's likely that headline inflation will move even higher during the summer months," Unicredit economist Aurelio Maccario said.

"A moderate deceleration trend won't begin before November. There's plenty to keep the ECB alert but we remain convinced that tightening beyond July is unnecessary because (growth) is slowing sharply," he said.

Text and Picture Copyright 2008 AFP. All other Copyright 2008 EUbusiness Ltd. All rights reserved. This material is intended solely for personal use. Any other reproduction, publication or redistribution of this material without the written agreement of the copyright owner is strictly forbidden and any breach of copyright will be considered actionable.




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