(BRUSSELS) - Will it paralyse the European Union or result in Ireland being cast aside?

While the European Commission insists there is no "plan B" should Ireland reject the Lisbon Treaty on Thursday, experts suggest that the EU does have a number of more or less palatable options.

FORCE IRELAND TO CHANGE ITS MIND

It worked with the Irish once, so why not try it again? In 2001, voters spurned the Nice Treaty which paved the way for enlargement into eastern Europe, but endorsed a modified version a year later which took into account its grievances, notably concerns about military neutrality.

The tough part is knowing what changes to make, given the main objections raised by the 'No' camp, to issues such as legalising abortion, changes to the tax system and cuts in farms subsidies, to name a few.

The treaty would then need to be adopted quick fire to be ready in time for the goal set by EU leaders -- the European Parliament elections next year.

RENEGOTIATE THE LISBON TREATY

No EU leader appears ready to renegotiate this treaty of reforms, which is itself is the skeleton and vital organs of the draft constitution that was torpedoed in referendums in France and the Netherlands three years ago.

But the past shows that the EU does not shy away from re-opening even the thorniest of texts. This could happen again given wide-spread discontent with the Nice Treaty, which by focusing on enlargement, failed to address the need for more fundamental reform.

FORGE AHEAD USING THE NICE TREATY

If no way can be found to have a quick re-vote, EU countries could decide to limp along using Nice. That means most decisions by unanimity, which is far more difficult to achieve with 27 members than it was for the 15 nations that drafted the old text.

Poland and Spain would continue to benefit from the way votes are shared between countries, and the influence of the European Parliament -- the EU's only elected body -- would remain marginal.

And any new nations that join -- Croatia is likely to enter in 2010 -- will upset the balance, with voting rights having to be recalculated.

CUT IRELAND ADRIFT FROM THE EU

This option would revolve around negotiating with Ireland its withdrawal from all the political aspects of European Union not connected to the common market and the euro single currency.

Some suggest it is similar to what Denmark did after rejecting the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, and then obtaining opt-outs on defence policy and monetary union.

While no one is talking about it, Ireland could also choose to leave the EU, although the only mechanism foreseen for such a move is contained, ironically, in the Lisbon Treaty.

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