Final push in Ireland's knife-edge EU poll battle

(DUBLIN) - Ireland risks bringing the European Union "to a halt" if it rejects a disputed new EU treaty this week, Prime Minister Brian Cowen warned Tuesday ahead of a crunch referendum watched anxiously in Europe.

The comment came as supporters and opponents of the Lisbon treaty made a final push for votes ahead of an eve-of-poll ban on campaigning for the plebiscite, which could deal a devastating blow to the 27-nation bloc.

Polls suggest that the result of Thursday's plebiscite is too close to call, despite a surge of activity which has seen all the main parties join forces to urge a "yes" vote Thursday.

"In an ever more competitive global environment, it is imperative we don't give the impression that we are turning our back on Europe," he said on the last day of campaigning.

"Future generations will not thank us if we are the ones who bring to a halt a union which has been the greatest force for peace and prosperity in our history and the history of Europe," he added.

Ireland is the only country to have a popular vote on the treaty and leaders in the other 26 nations in the bloc are watching with barely-contained alarm, after opinion polls suggest the vote could go either way.

With just two days before Ireland's three million voters go to the polls in the crunch vote on the treaty, winning over a large block of undecided voters is seen as vital.

Opponents of the EU treaty have warned of threats on issues ranging from Ireland's tax system to abortion laws and its long-cherished military neutrality.

While critics accuse them of fanning baseless fears, the warnings clearly strike a chord: a poll last Friday put the "no" vote ahead by 35 percent to 30 percent. On Sunday another survey gave the "yes" vote 42 percent to 39 percent.

Foreign Minister Micheal Martin appeared upbeat Tuesday. "My strong feeling is that the 'No' campaign has petered out, I think we're winning the argument," he told AFP.

But Ireland has a history of causing upsets: its voters rejected the bloc's Nice Treaty in 2001, a result only overturned by holding a second vote in 2002.

The Lisbon Treaty replaced the doomed EU constitution, which was torpedoed by French and Dutch voters in referendums in 2005, plunging the bloc into the worst crisis in its half-century history.

All 27 EU nations must ratify the wide-ranging new treaty if it is to come into effect on January 1, 2009 as planned. So far 15 have completed, or all but completed, that process.

Hugo Brady of the London-based Centre for European Reform thinktank said the Irish referendum was too close to call.

But he warned: "A 'No' would land a critical blow to the morale of Europe's political establishment and force the EU into a further bout of negotiations about institutions and rules."

A series of final rallies and press conferences were underway on Tuesday in advance of a traditional moratorium on coverage by broadcasting organisations Wednesday and Thursday to give voters a period of reflection.

Cowen pointed out that 95 percent of the treaty was agreed in 2004 when he was foreign minister during the six-month revolving presidency of the EU. "We ensured that our fundamental concerns were accommodated," he said.

"We were the people in the chair who directed the discussions and obtained this compromise. This is the best deal. We have all the assurances we sought," he added.