Ireland faces tight referendum on EU treaty

(DUBLIN) - Ireland votes on the European Union's key constitutional treaty this week with the continent's leaders braced for a new crisis if it is rejected.

It is the only country holding a popular vote on the Lisbon Treaty but many Irish voters are baffled by the issues at stake and the government is battling to avoid a defeat which would cause paralysis across the 27-country bloc.

Prime Minister Brian Cowen, leading the "yes" campaign, says the treaty will make decision-making in the fast-expanding EU easier and boost Ireland's slowing economy by cementing its place in Europe.

But voters still seem unsure of its merits -- an Irish Times poll Thursday put the "no" camp five points ahead, while the campaign's final survey by the Sunday Business Post gave the "yes" side a slender three-point lead.

Even politicians in favour admit they have struggled with the highly technical, 346-page document.

Cowen has said he has not read it all, Irish EU commissioner Charlie McCreevy quipped "no sane person" would and Defence Minister Willie O'Dea described it as "more Stephen Hawking than JK Rowling".

"They have the gall to ask us to vote for it... and the fact is a lot of them admit they haven't read it," said Naoise Nunn, executive director of Libertas, the main opposition grouping.

"Their approach has been to sell Europe as a concept -- most people on the 'no' side agree that Europe has been positive but this is about a treaty which further cements power without providing accountability."

Ireland is constitutionally obliged to hold a referendum on the treaty, which all EU member countries have to approve.

Experts say part of the problem facing the "yes" camp is the lack of a strong selling point -- its catchiest initiatives include creating a full-time president and foreign policy chief for the EU.

"The difficulty for the 'yes' camp is finding a hook to sell it because there's no really big project in there," Doctor David Phinnemore, senior lecturer in European integration at Queen's University Belfast, told AFP.

"It provides a good argument for the 'no' camp who will say 'do you actually need it?'"

At first sight, Ireland seems like an unlikely country to cause an upset over the EU.

Once heavily reliant on agriculture, it received big EU subsidies in the 1990s which drew in foreign investment and helped industries like IT, pharmaceuticals and finance to boom, making it one of Europe's richest nations.

But if there is a "no" vote Thursday, it will not be the first time Irish voters have caused brows to furrow in the Brussels corridors of power.

In 2001, they rejected the EU's Nice Treaty on enlargement and institutional reform in a low turnout referendum whose result was reversed the following year.

This time, though, politicians insist Ireland will not get a second bite of the cherry if it votes "no" -- European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has warned: "There is no plan B".

"Unless there is a significant change in the public mood by next Thursday, the European Union will be plunged into crisis by the Irish referendum vote," the Irish Times newspaper said in an editorial Friday.

Some commentators suggest that fatigue among Irish voters faced with five referendums on EU issues since 1986 could hit turnout -- and politicians' hopes of securing a "yes" vote -- once again.

The pro-treaty campaign is supported by all of Ireland's main political parties except Sinn Fein, the left-wing party led by Gerry Adams which is the former political arm of the Irish Republican Army (IRA).

Opposition comes from a cluster of groups whose arguments include that the treaty threatens Irish totems like military neutrality and low corporation tax levels which fuelled the 1990s 'Celtic Tiger' economic boom.

Cowen took over as Taoiseach (prime minister) and leader of the centre-right Fianna Fail from Bertie Ahern at the start of May, just a month before the referendum campaign got under way.

Ahern, who won a record three terms as premier, stepped aside after facing growing pressure over a public inquiry probing corruption allegations against him.