EU pact could swing Serbian election: analysts

(BELGRADE) - The signing of a deal on closer ties with the European Union is likely to give Serbia's pro-Western bloc a slight edge in looming general elections, analysts said Wednesday.

Leaders of the pro-Western forces on Tuesday signed the Stabilisation and Association Agreement, a first step towards possible EU membership, despite vehement opposition from their nationalist rivals.

Serbia's political scene is sharply polarised over its relations with the EU after most of its 27 members recognised Kosovo, an Albanian-majority province which declared independence from the Balkan country two months ago.

Analysts say the signing of the SAA will influence the outcome of the snap parliamentary elections on May 11, effectively by shaping it as a referendum on Serbia's European integration.

Pro-Western President Boris Tadic says Serbia has no alternative but to join the EU, while nationalists like outgoing Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica have sought to paint him as a traitor for doing deals with a group of nations that has backed Kosovo separatists.

"The signing of the SAA should clarify" the situation for voters confused by Serbia's relations with the EU after Kosovo's independence, said Svetlana Logar of political research institute Strategic Marketing.

"After this act, the EU certainly won't send a message that Serbia has recognised the independence of Kosovo, which up until now has been the premise of some parties.

"The biggest confusion was caused by the status quo, and in this way a clarification of the situation is useful" to the pro-Western forces in the elections, Logar added.

That confusion was reflected Wednesday in Serbian newspapers.

"Agreement with EU signed, Serbia divided," said the main headline in the pro-government newspaper Politika.

"Benefits of EU signature hinge on election result and Hague," the liberal daily Danas said in reference to cooperation with The Hague-based UN war crimes tribunal, the biggest obstacle to Serbia's EU aspirations.

But mirroring the nationalist interpretation of the signing of the EU accord, the tabloid Kurir suggested the pro-European bloc "gave away Kosovo" by inking the deal.

The elections were triggered by the collapse in March of a shaky coalition of Tadic's pro-Western Democratic Party (DS), Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) and the reformist G17-Plus.

In campaigning, Kostunica has sought to capitalise on anger over Kosovo to lure voters from the ultra-nationalist Radical Party, which won the most votes but fell short of an outright majority in January 2007 elections.

Kostunica, who has yet to rule out forming a government with the Radicals, warned Tuesday that the newly constituted parliament would "annul" the EU accord after the elections.

But the "For a European Serbia" alliance of the DS, G17-Plus and small liberal parties has tried to separate Serbia's EU integration from the issue of Kosovo, whose independence they also oppose.

Zoran Lucic of the non-governmental Centre for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) says the signing of the EU accord could strengthen both blocs, depending on how it is harnessed in the final phase of campaigning.

"It remains an open question as to how much they will be in a position to exploit that information, but I think that both sides will have benefits from that," Lucic said.

However political analyst Djordje Vukadinovic predicted the EU deal would only serve to further polarise the 6.7 million electorate.

"It is obvious that this offer to sign the SAA is really an attempt by Brussels to help Serbia's pro-European forces," he said.

A CeSID opinion poll last week gave the Radical Party 36 percent of voter support, Tadic's camp 35 percent, Kostunica's 12 percent, the pro-Western Liberal Democratic Party eight percent and Socialist Party seven percent.

Observers say the onus is now on pro-Western parties to properly market the EU deal and get a lead which should strengthen its hand in talks on forming a new government or, failing that, a new round of elections.