Less than half of Irish would vote for EU treaty: poll

(DUBLIN) - Less than half of the Irish people would vote for the new European Union treaty, according to a poll in the country's Sunday Business Post newspaper.

Ireland is the only country in the 27-member EU to hold a referendum but according to the Red C tracking poll, 46 percent said they would vote "Yes" while 23 percent would vote "No". Some 31 percent were still undecided.

The newspaper said the findings, if replicated at the popular vote expected in May or early June, is "not quite the 2-1 lead for the Yes side that it appears to be", assessing that turnout will be key to the campaign.

"Historically in European referenda No voters despite -- or perhaps because of -- coming from a diverse ideological spectrum, have been more motivated to turn out," it wrote.

In 2001, Ireland sent shockwaves through the bloc when it voted down the Nice Treaty on institutional reform and enlargement.

That decision was reversed in another referendum in 2003, following the insertion of a protocol backed by other EU leaders clarifying the issue of neutrality.

The newspaper said about the same number of "No" voters turned out in both votes on the Nice Treaty.

"However, in 2001, with just a 35 percent turnout, it was enough to win. The following year, with a turnout of about 50 percent, the treaty was ratified."

Last week, the Irish government approved the wording of the proposed change to its 1937 constitution for the referendum to reaffirm Ireland's traditional policy of military neutrality.

The move is seen as an attempt by the government to deal in advance with any attempt by opponents of the treaty to raise fears on the issue.

The Red C poll was carried out between February 25 and 27 and involved a random sample of 1,012 adults interviewed by telephone across the country.