Swedish euro opponents extend lead four days before referendum

Opponents to Swedish euro entry extended their lead in opinion polls on Wednesday just four days ahead of a referendum on the single currency, leaving experts doubting whether the "yes" camp can turn the tide in time.

Five polls published on Wednesday all showed the "no" camp widening its lead to between eight and 13 points, compared to the five to 10 point lead it had enjoyed in the past week.

The "no" side has consistently led in the polls since pro-euro Prime Minister Goeran Persson called the referendum on Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) membership in November, though some surveys had showed the "yes" camp closing the gap in recent weeks.

"It is hard to see how the pro-EMU camp could turn around the negative trend in the gap between 'yes' and 'no' votes," Danske Bank said Wednesday.

Ulf Haraldsson, analyst at the Ruab polling institute, concurred.

"It will be very difficult for the 'yes' camp to swing things around," he said.

Swedish Foreign Minister Anna Lindh, one of the front-figures for the "yes" campaign, remained optimistic nonetheless.

"It's a fight against the clock now, but I hope and think that we will be able to do it," she said.

A Gallup poll for TV4 and daily Expressen credited the "no" camp with 47 percent of voting intentions, up three percentage points from last week. The "yes" camp lost three points, to 35 percent, while 18 percent said they were undecided.

Gallup questioned 1,031 people between September 3 and 9.

Danske Bank, which publishes updated polls every day this week, also detected a rise in euro opposition, to 41.9 percent from 40.4 on Tuesday, while support for the single currency declined to 29.1 percent from 30.5.

When those who said they would "maybe" vote "yes" or "maybe" vote "no" were included, the "yes" camp dropped 41.4 from 43.6 percent, while the "no" camp clocked up 56.7 percent, against 54.5 Tuesday.

Danske Bank interviewed 1,000 people up to September 9.

A third poll, by Ruab for daily Dagens Industri, showed a similar trend. It had 47.6 percent planning to vote "no", compared with 46.0 in Ruab's previous poll, with the "yes" side stable at 38.8 percent.

Ruab canvassed opinion among 1,955 people between September 1 and 7.

A Sifo poll showed opposition growing by 2.0 points to 49 percent, with europhiles losing as much to 39 percent, while the number of undecideds remained stable at nine percent and blank votes totalled three percent.

Sifo surveyed 1,000 people during the period September 3-9.

Finally, a fifth poll conducted by Demoskop among 5,519 people during the period September 1-7, showed the "no" side gaining three points to 47 percent and the "yes" side slipping one point to 38 percent. Fifteen percent said they were undecided.

If Swedes do vote to adopt the euro on Sunday, the single currency would be introduced on January 1, 2006, at the earliest.

But if they do not, many expect a re-run at some later stage.

Questioned by Sifo in a poll published by Svenska Dagbladet, only 28 percent of nay-sayers said the wanted Sweden to stay out of the eurozone forever.

Some 38 percent said they wanted to join later, while 28 percent were undecided. Sifo polled 1,007 people between September 1 and 4.