Moscow's shadow looms over Lithuanian elections
Lithuania Sunday will hold its first parliamentary elections since joining the European Union this year but fears of domination by Moscow have been reignited by the expected success of a Russian-born millionaire's party.
Despite roaring economic growth in a country dubbed the "Baltic Tiger," disgruntled sections of society left behind by the new-found prosperity in major cities have flocked to Viktor Uspaskich's opposition Labour Party.
His party, set up only last year, is expected to grab the most seats in the 141-member parliament, the Seimas, making him a potential candidate for prime minister in Lithuania, which broke free from the Soviet Union in 1991.
"Voters are disenchanted with their leaders," the influential Respublika daily's headline warned on the eve of the poll.
The vote follows the election in July of a pro-Western president, former US emigre Valdas Adamkus, after the impeachment of his popular predecessor Rolandas Paksas over ties to a shadowy Russian-born businessman.
In the affluent city centre of the capital Vilnius, where Western designer boutiques line its cobbled streets, there is alarm at the prospect of a Russian heading the government -- which never happened during half a century of Soviet rule.
"I'd like Lithuanians to win. He's a Russian, he didn't come here so long ago and we don't know much about him," said a smartly-dressed woman in her late 50s, who gave her name only as Ona.
"He has ties to his motherland, for all we know with the top leadership in Moscow," she added darkly.
Lithuania, which depends entirely on Russia for its gas supplies, has strong economic links to its giant neighbour, with petrol stations of Russian oil major LUKoil seen everywhere.
But in common with the other two former Soviet Baltic states, it has sought protection under the Western security umbrella, joining the European Union and the US-led NATO military alliance earlier this year.
In a bid to provide reassurance, Uspaskich signed a document with the leaders of 11 other parties this week promising no change in foreign policy but concerns remain.
"All of us in NATO and the EU are looking carefully who the leaders of our close friend will be," a Western diplomat in Vilnius told AFP.
Uspaskich's party, which campaigns on a populist platform promising to improve living conditions, is forecast to capture between a third and 38 percent of the vote according to two recent polls.
The ruling leftist coalition of the Social Democrat and Social Liberal parties, led by Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas and parliamentary speaker Arturas Paulauskas, is trailing second with around 20 percent support.
The 2.645 million-strong electorate in Lithuania will start voting at 7:00 am (0400 GMT) on Sunday, with the first indications expected around 10 pm (1900 GMT).
The elections' final results, however, will be known only after October 24 when a second round of voting will be held in those of 71 individual constituencies where no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote.
Observers say that Labour takes its strength from small towns and rural areas, where Uspaskich's blunt appeal extends well beyond the Russian-speaking minority to poorer or struggling middle-class Lithuanians.
But Frederikas Jansonas, a columnist at Respublika, predicts that other political forces may combine to try and keep Uspaskich out of power.
"We could see a so-called rainbow coalition after the elections in an attempt to keep the Labour Party out from government," he said.
