Reality check for Croatian conservatives in local polls

Croatia's ruling conservatives are to face a tough test at local polls on Sunday amid heavy criticism of their economic record and anxiety over the start accession talks with the European Union.

Surveys show the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) neck-and-neck with the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), which is running in coalition with Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS) on most lists.

Voters are to elect councilors in 21 county assemblies and 546 municipalities under a system of proportional representation.

Support for the HDZ has fallen to 21 percent from 35 percent in 2003 when it returned to power with a clear majority in national parliamentary elections, according to a survey by Metron agency.

The SDP was the strongest party with 23 percent, with the nationalist Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) has established itself in third place.

Analysts said the elections come at a bad time for the HDZ's Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, who is wrestling with unemployment of 19 percent and foreign debt exceeding 80 percent of gross domestic product.

On the diplomatic front his plans of joining the EU in 2007 have been put on hold as the bloc has refused to open membership talks as Croatia has failed to hand over key war crimes fugitive Ante Gotovina to the UN court at The Hague.

"The government has still not gone through half its four-year term and people are angry with it," political analyst Sanja Modric said.

"That's why in the short term, and maybe in the long term as well, the only chance for the prime minister and his team is to locate and deliver Gotovina right now to The Hague, and ensure the beginning of talks with the EU."

Gotovina is wanted for the murder of at least 150 ethnic Serbs toward the end of Croatia's 1991-1995 conflict, but is seen as a national hero by many Croats. The government insists it has no knowledge of his whereabouts.

SDP head Ivica Racan announced last month that the opposition would push for early parliamentary polls if Zagreb did not start membership talks with the EU this year.

Analyst Nenad Zakosek said the HDZ, which currently holds power in eight counties, can rely on strong grassroots support to help it through Sunday's vote.

"HDZ structures are very strong at local level, where they have a better network and more members than other parties," he said.

"This will be visible in these polls although it doesn't mean that those who will vote for the HDZ at the local level support the government's policies."

He said coalitions could play a major role in distributing power in some counties.

"Due to dissatisfaction with government policy and a gap between Sanader's program and the prevalent mood of the HDZ electorate, as well as the weak opposition, independent lists could play a role," Zakosek told AFP.

The center-left parties which ran the country until 2003 had failed to impose themselves as a strong alternative, he said.

"Voters were not too impressed with the economic policy of the previous coalition government either and that is why rightist parties seem to be the only ones who are able to capitalize on the dissatisfaction with the HDZ government's inefficiency in tackling social and economic issues, and problems with the EU," Zakosek said.