Embattled Brown hopes to confound critics at EU talks

(LONDON) - Embattled Gordon Brown is vowing to defend Britain's "red lines" to the hilt at an EU treaty summit this week, seeking to defuse calls for a referendum which have compounded his woes at home.

But analysts predict that, whatever he does at the European Union (EU) talks in Lisbon on Thursday and Friday, the referendum demands are unlikely to go away anytime soon.

Brown, bracing for his first EU summit since taking office in June, has pledged to give no ground on commitments secured by his predecessor Tony Blair on the treaty, due to replace the bloc's defunct constitution.

If the "red lines" conditions remain in place -- on foreign policy, labour rights, the common law and the tax and social security systems -- he insists there is no need for a referendum as sought by opposition Conservatives.

But the Tories -- hoping to capitalize on a disastrous two weeks for Brown since he backed away from snap elections -- are watching closely for any misstep they can exploit.

"The eurosceptic lobby is ratcheting up a well-funded, media-savvy campaign to pressure the government into holding a referendum on the treaty," said Hugo Brady of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank.

The 27-nation EU is battling to agree a replacement to the constitution, more than two years after it was rejected in referendums by French and Dutch voters, with Britain and Poland seen as the main holdouts.

Brown has rejected calls for a referendum on the new text, arguing that the new treaty is fundamentally different from the constitution, while also noting the red lines secured by Blair in June, shortly before he left office.

And on the eve of the Lisbon talks London insists the red lines are stronger than ever, and appears confident they will hold.

"In respect of the so-called red lines which are important to us, there was no challenge to them," said Foreign Secretary David Miliband on Tuesday, after talks with his EU counterparts in Luxembourg to prepare for the summit.

But the Tories are on a roll, with their poll ratings surging to a 15-year high after Brown was widely criticized for backing off from snap elections and then "stealing" Tory tax policies last week.

Conservative leader David Cameron will use the EU treaty mercilessly to keep Brown on the back foot, demanding a referendum as pledged by Blair in the run-up to the last election in 2005, when he said it was "a question of trust."

"This is indeed a matter of trust with the electorate. So, will you now honour the promise you made to the British people to hold a referendum?" wrote Cameron in an open letter to Brown at the weekend.

While downplaying the prospect of a British referendum, Brown -- keen to maintain pressure on his fellow EU leaders, -- has not ruled out the option altogether if there is any backsliding on Britain's red lines in Lisbon.

He voiced confidence in securing Britain's conditions, but warned last week: "If that is not the case, then there will either be a veto or there will be a referendum."

Most commentators assume that a referendum, in notoriously euroskeptic Britain, would reject the treaty, especially with the help of a popular press which has long campaigned against a "European superstate."

Think-tank expert Brady said that would pose Britain with a fundamental choice.

"If the British were to vote No, thereby blocking the Reform Treaty, they could find it hard to stay in the EU," he said, while underlining that "demands for a referendum will not go away."

Some pro-Europeans would welcome such a crunch choice. "They assume that when faced with the stark choice between in and out, most Britons would opt for membership," he said.

"A cathartic argument over Britain's place in Europe could be good for the country."