Dutch gov't set to avoid political fall-out from 'no' vote
The center-right Dutch government appears set to avoid the political turmoil taking place in France even though it is likely to suffer an equally stinging reverse in its own referendum Wednesday on the EU constitution.
In France, President Jacques Chirac ousted his prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin following Sunday's rejection by French voters of the bloc's first-ever constitution, appointing close aide Dominique de Villepin in his place.
In the Netherlands, opinion polls suggest up to 60 percent of voters will reject the constitution, which is designed to streamline and harmonise the way the expanding European Union is run.
But the predicted defeat for the government, which is campaigning hard for a "yes" vote, does not have the opposition parties baying for blood.
In short, no one is expecting a cabinet reshuffle.
"Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende has already said he will not step down if the constitution is rejected, so that issue is not up for discussion," Frans Timmermans, the opposition Labour party's spokesman on European affairs, told AFP.
"After a 'no' it will be quiet in Dutch domestic politics," the Trouw daily commented.
"Some in the 'no' camp will try to stress the failing of the Balkenende government and say the gap between politics and people in the street has become too wide," according to the paper.
But, Trouw noted, Labour -- the biggest opposition party with 42 of the 150 parliamentary seats -- could hardly support that kind of reaction as it is also supporting the campaign for approval.
Labour's Timmermans agreed with Trouw's assessment.
"We are also campaigning for a 'yes'. It would be strange to talk about political consequences now" with a government which fought along similar lines, he explained.
Ton van der Lee, a spokesman for the opposition Green Left party, also said his party was not out for Balkenende's blood.
"The referendum was put on the agenda in part by parliamentary members of our party. It is not logical that we would demand political consequences for a 'no' vote," he said.
Unlike in France, in the Netherlands it was not the government that called the referendum but parliament which forced it through against the wishes of the administration, Van der Lee explained.
"If we would try to force the government to step down over the 'no' vote, shouldn't we resign as well because we also campaigned for the yes?" he said.
In the "no" camp, only Geert Wilders, who defected from the liberals to form his eponymous far-right party, of which he holds the sole seat in parliament, has called for early elections.
Even the right-wing LPF party of slain populist leader Pim Fortuyn -- which rose to prominence on an anti-immigration and anti-bureaucracy ticket, and which usually sympathizes with Wilders' views -- said Tuesday it would not call for a government resignation if the "no" vote wins.
"If there are political consequences they should not be only for the government but for the entire parliament because some 85 percent of legislators support the constitution," LPF spokeswoman Agnes Leewis said.
"The whole parliament would have to resign and that's not very realistic. What the LPF is aiming for is a broad discussion in Dutch society about the European Union," she added.

