EBF 2015 Spring Economic Outlook: Springtime for Europe

30 April 2015
by ebffbe -- last modified 30 April 2015

Forecast for Euro area GDP growth raised to 1.5% in 2015, 1.7% in 2016 - Bank economists see protracted period of low inflation ahead

The European Banking Federation today published its 2015 Spring Economic Outlook. The outlook is based on the consensus of the members of the EBF Chief Economist Group.

• The euro area is moving toward a moderate economic growth that is stronger than previously expected. We foresee the euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 1.4% this year, which is 0.2% points higher than our October 2014 forecast. The recovery is expected to accelerate slightly in 2016, when we foresee a GDP expansion of 1.7%.
• European banks see a protracted period of low inflation ahead. We expect consumer price inflation to average 0.1% in 2015, before rising to 1.2% in 2016.
• Public finances will continue to slowly adjust: the euro area general government budget deficit will be 2.3% of GDP this year, and 2.0% of GDP in 2016.
• The expected GDP growth will generate a small decline in unemployment. The jobless rate is forecast to be 11.1% in 2015 and 10.6% in 2016.
• We expect that ECB main interest rates will remain unchanged this year and next. The euro/dollar exchange rate is foreseen to be around parity in the second part of this year.

The European Banking Federation is the voice of the European banking sector, uniting 32 national banking associations in Europe that together represent some 4,500 banks - large and small, wholesale and retail, local and international - employing about 2.5 million people. EBF members represent banks that make available loans to the European economy in excess of €20 trillion and that securely handle more than 300 million payment transactions per day. Launched in 1960, the EBF is committed to creating a single market for financial services in the European Union and to supporting policies that foster economic growth.

Full economic outlook