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Italy expects slower economic growth, deficit breaching EU pact



Italy's economy this year is expected to grow less than 1.2 percent, which is the most recent estimate of the government, Economy and Finance Minister Domenico Siniscalco said Tuesday.

The estimate for the public deficit was also expected to be reviewed and could surpass the 3.0 percent limit set by the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact, Siniscalco added.

"The annual figure will, without doubt, require a downward revision of the growth estimates and the public accounts for 2005," Siniscalco told parliament.

The minister's comments follow the recent publication of figures indicating that Italy slid into recession in the first quarter, when gross domestic product fell 0.5 percent, after a 0.4 percent contraction of GDP in the last quarter of 2004.

"For the moment, a precise estimation of economic growth for 2005 and 2006 seems premature and we should wait to have the figures from the next quarter as well," the minister said.

The Italian government had initially estimated GDP growth at 2.1 percent for 2005, then revised it down to 1.2 percent.

The public deficit will remain in 2005 "under 4.0 percent" of GDP, breaching the 3.0 percent limit set by the stability pact, Siniscalco implicitly acknowledged.

"If growth slows by another 0.6 percent, that will lead to, in the worst case... a deficit in 2005 of around 3.75 percent, in any case less than 4.0 percent," the minister said.

The European Commission has estimated an Italian public deficit of 3.6 percent of GDP for 2005 and 4.6 percent in 2006.

17 May 2005, 17:43 CET
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