Eurozone data to show German, French industrial activity subdued
Eurozone indicators to be released this week will show German and French industrial activity remained subdued in April, bolstering evidence of a slowdown in economic growth, while British data also will highlight a cooling economy, experts say.
Industrial output in Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, is expected to rise 0.5 percent in April after two months of declines.
But James Ashley and Nick Matthews of Barclays Capital said the increase would just be the result of a strong correction in construction activity after unfavourable weather conditions hit construction in February and March.
"Output excluding construction is projected to be weaker as manufacturing production falls slightly," they said.
Lorenzo Codogno of Bank of America said the underlying trend in German output would still show a weakening trend.
"Recent indicators are hardly encouraging," he said.
German manufacturing orders, meanwhile, are expected to decline 1.0 percent after the unexpected 2.1 percent surge recorded in March.
"Survey data does not augur for strong orders," said Ed Teather of UBS.
Codogno said the assessment of orders in the Ifo survey collapsed in April, and the German manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) gives a similar message.
French industry is seen faring no better, with no significant improvement in output expected after the declines of February and March.
Industrial output is expected to edge up 0.1 percent in April, while manufacturing output is seen easing 0.1 percent.
"The latest manufacturing PMI, INSEE report and Bank of France survey all point to further weakness in April and possibly a contraction within the manufacturing sector for the second quarter overall," said Jonathan Hoffman and Nathalie Dempster of Royal Bank of Scotland.
Meanwhile, Italy's second estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will confirm that the country is in recession, but the breakdown for the data which will be provided for the first time could give some clues on prospects for recovery.
"The breakdown will be key for a clearer picture of the short-term prospects. The fourth quarter saw strong stock accumulation. We suspect this will have been at least partially reversed in the first quarter, playing an important part in the sharp decline in GDP," BNP Paribas economists said.
There is also the possibility that first-quarter GDP could be revised up from the initial estimate of a 0.5 percent decline.
"Most indicators on the production side and on the expenditure side had projected a weak GDP reading in the first quarter, but not as weak as reported by ISTAT, the Italian statistical office. Therefore, we suspect there may be some upward revision from the originally reported 0.5 percent decline, a revision that could even be significant," said Codogno.
However, most economists expect the preliminary figure to be confirmed.
In Britain, the bulk of the data for the week comes on Thursday, with manufacturing production data for April expected to show no improvement.
"Manufacturing output fell sharply in April and has actually contracted in each of the past three months. While we would expect some rebound after such a poor stream of numbers, the survey evidence suggests any rebound is likely to be very limited," said John Butler at HSBC.
The PMI survey of activity in the sector fell in April below the key 50 level which marks expansion while the Confederation of British Industry's industrial trends survey also reported a sharp decline.
The median forecast among analysts polled by AFX News, the AFP financial news service, indicates a 0.6 percent month-on-month rise leading to a 1.6 percent year-on-year fall -- the same as in March.
But a significant number of analysts predict that the April readings will be much weaker.
Analysts at Capital Economics pointed out that the collapse of carmaker MG Rover alone could reduce total manufacturing in April 0.2 points. However, production is also expected to show some rebound after the Easter holidays weighed on output in March.
Also out on Thursday, the position of the Britain's trade in goods with the rest of the world is expected to have worsened slightly.
"The April data should be the first indication of a likely negative net trade growth contribution in Q2 2005," said Butler at HSBC.
In the first quarter of the year, the trade in goods deficit improved for the first time in a year. However, the improvement may not be sustained into the second three months of the year.
"For a start, two thirds of March's narrowing was down to trade flows in oil and erratic items. On top of this, the improvement over the last quarter has been due to a sharp and sudden fall in imports," analysts at Capital Economics said.
Additionally, survey evidence shows that export orders remained weak in April, they added.
"We have penciled in a widening in the trade in goods deficit to 4.8 billion pounds (7.1 billion euros, 8.7 billion dollars) in April, and remain cautious about the prospects further out," they said.

